Thedata related to MS patients were obtained from MS monitoring center of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences between 2001 and 2014.The MS monitoring center is the only institution, which delivers services to MS patients in south of Iran. Thus, most probably, all MS patients refer to this center for treatment follow-up. However, few patients may travel to other provinces for treatment.
Shiraz,located in southwest of Iran,isthe fifth most populous city of Iran and the capital of Farsprovince with a population of over two million. This city is the patient referral centrein south of Iran.
MS registry in Shiraz was run at the beginning of June 1995; therefore, this research included the patients who were diagnosed with MS between January 2001 and December 2014. A total of 2393 patients diagnosed with MS were enrolled in the study.
The inclusion criteria of this study werediagnosi-sof MSby neurologists, registry of residence ad-dress in the patients' records, and access to im-age-supported neurological diagnosis.
In order to calculate the incidence rate of MS in each year, the average population wasobtained-based on the census performed in Iran in 2006 and 2011 (Iran's statistical center). For other years, the average population was estimated by N
(Nt = population size at time t; No = original population size, r = intrinsic rate of increase, and t = time).
The data were analyzed using Excel (2013) and Stata-SE (version 11) software programs through descriptive statistics andunivariate and multivariate Poisson regression. The association between each of the explanatory variables, including age, sex, and education level, and incidence rate of MS was determined using univariate and multivariate Poisson regression.Then, the final model of Poisson regression was fitted by all the factors that were statistically significant in the univariate analysis.The findings have been shown as inci-dence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CI95%). Besides, the significance level was set at 0.05.
The research was conducted in accordance with the Helsinki Declaration and it was approved by the Ethics Committeeof Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.
Result:
This study was performed on 2393 MS patients with the mean age of 30.18±8.86 years (CI95%: 30.16-30.88). Additionally, the mean age of male and female patients was 30.67±8.89 (CI95%: 30.04-31.64) and 30.05±8.86 years (CI95%: 30.04-30.83), respectively. Also, approximately 78.81% of the MS patients (n=1886) were female.
In all the MS patients, the important drugs pre-scribed based on physicians’ orders were Cinno-vex(n=771, 2.21%), Betaferon (n= 412, 13.67%), Recigen (n= 365, 15.26%), Rebif (n=327, 13.67%), and Avonex (n=296, 12.37%). Also, the lowest number of patients were treated with Zifron (n=18, 0.75%). The mean dose of the drugs used by the patients was 8.81±5.63 dosages per month.
The highest incidence of MS was detected in 2011 (312 cases). Other characteristics of the patients and the relationships between their cha-racteristics and theincidence of MS have been presented.
Table I: MS patients’ characteristics and their relationship with the incidence of MS in Shiraz
Variables |
Classification |
Frequency (Percentage) |
Incidence rate (per 100,000) |
CI
95% |
p |
Patients’ age (at the time of diagnosis) |
Lower than 20 |
296(12.37) |
7.25 |
(5.12-7.16) |
0.01 |
20-30 |
1070(44
.71) |
10.25 |
(6.12-12.
25) |
30-40 |
695(29.04) |
8.86 |
5.12-10.02 |
40-50 |
285(11.91) |
3.39 |
2.22-5.20 |
Higher than50 |
47(1.96) |
0.92 |
0.22-1.55 |
Sex |
Female |
1886(78.
81) |
12.66 |
9.66-15.69 |
0.01 |
Male |
507(21.19) |
6.81 |
4.58-8.21 |
Education level |
Lower than Diploma |
617(27.34) |
6.25 |
4.02-8.36 |
0.03 |
Diploma |
597(26.45) |
9.02 |
6.23-12.09 |
Academic |
1043(46.
21) |
13.15 |
9.98-17.65 |
MS status |
CIS |
693(29.02) |
9.25 |
6.25-14.58 |
0.02 |
Relapsing-remitting |
1431(59
.92) |
12.22 |
8.58-15.71 |
Progressive-relapsing |
112(4.69) |
5.22 |
3.56-7.25 |
Primary progressive |
48(2.01) |
1.23 |
0.96-2.09 |
Secondary progressive |
104(4.36) |
2.36 |
1.10-3.99 |
According totable I, the highestincidence of MSoccurred in the 20-30 years’ age group(1070 cases, 44.71%), while the lowest incidence was detected in the above-50-years age group. More-over, the finding of Poisson regressionshoweda significant difference among the age groups re-garding the incidence of MS(p=0.01). The results also revealed a significant difference between the males and females concerning the incidence of MS (p=0.01). Accordingly, the incidence rate of MS was attained as12.66 and 6.81 per 100,000 in females and males, respectively.
As shown in table I,most of the patients had aca-demic education (46.21%) followed by diploma (26.45%). Besides, the incidence of MS was significantly associatedwitheducation level (p=0.02); the highest incidence of MS (13.15) was related to the patients with academic educa-tion. Also, the most prevalent type of MS was the relapsing-remitting form (12.22).
The incidence rate of MS based on various years under studyhas beenindicated in table II.
Table II:Incidence rate of MS in Shiraz in various years (2001-2014)
Year |
n
(Percentage) |
Population average (Shiraz)* |
Incidence rate (per 100,000) |
CI95% |
2001 |
62(2.59) |
1576688 |
3.93 |
2.06-7.48 |
2002 |
61(2.55) |
1596525 |
3.82 |
1.48-9.83 |
2003 |
78(3.26) |
1616362 |
4.83 |
2.37-9.81 |
2004 |
91(3.80) |
1636199 |
5.56 |
1.18-26.12 |
2005 |
125(5.22) |
1656036 |
7.55 |
1.81-31.42 |
2006 |
106
(4.43) |
1675873 |
6.33 |
3.54-11.27 |
2007 |
170(7.10) |
1695481 |
10.03 |
3.55-28.34 |
2008 |
221(9.50) |
1715318 |
12.88 |
3.50-47.39 |
2009 |
161(6.73) |
1735387 |
9.28 |
3.87-22.21 |
2010 |
236
(9.86) |
1749926 |
13.49 |
2.50-72.56 |
2011 |
312
(13.04) |
1770400 |
17.62 |
8.02-38.72 |
2012 |
303
(12.66) |
1791114 |
16.92 |
6.23-45.88 |
2013 |
238
(9.95) |
1812070 |
13.13 |
7.16-24.06 |
2014 |
229
(9.57) |
1833271 |
12.49 |
4.20-37.10 |
The average population was obtainedbased on the census performed in Iran in 2001, 2006 and 2011. For other years, it was estimated by N
t=N
0(1+r)
t.
According totable II, the highest incidence rate of MS was related to 2011(17.6292per 100,000) and 2012 (16.92per 100,000). On the other hand, the lowest incidence rates were related to 2001-2006. The results showed a significant difference among the incidence rates of MS in the study years (p=0.01).The trend of MSincidence based on sex has been presented in figure 1.
Figure1:The incidence of MS in male, female, and total populationin Shiraz in various years
Figure oneshowed the increasing trend of MSin-cidence in Shiraz from 2001 to 2014. Besides, this increasing trend was partly similar in male and female patients. However, theincidence rate of MS was quite higher in women than in men.
The association between the explanatory va-riables (age, sex, education level, and year) and incidence of MS using multivariate Poisson re-gression has been shown in table III.
Table III: Multivariate Poisson regression for the relationship between the explanatory factors and incidence of MS in Shiraz
Variables |
Incidence rate |
SE |
Z |
p-value |
CI95% |
Patients’ age (at the time of diagnosis) |
0.62 |
0.88 |
7.05 |
0.01 |
0.08-0.33 |
Sex (female/male) |
2.95 |
0.95 |
3.37 |
0.01 |
1.57-5.55 |
Education
level 1 (academic/under diploma) |
1.55 |
0.31 |
2.20 |
0.02 |
1.04-2.31 |
Education
level 2 (diploma/under diploma) |
1.44 |
0.58 |
0.92 |
0.35 |
0.65-3.17 |
Year |
1.07 |
0.11 |
6.71 |
0.01 |
1.05-1.09 |
As shown in table III, in the multivariate model, age, sex, education level (academic/under diplo-ma), and year were significantlyassociated with the incidence of MS. However, no significant difference was observed between the patients with diploma and under diploma degrees regard-ing the incidence of MS (
p =0.35). In addition, sex was the most important predictor of inci-dence of MS.
Discussion
Based on the present study results, the incidence rate of MSin Shiraz varied from 3.93 per 100,000in 2001 to 17.62 per 100,000 in 2014.Besides, the highest rateswererelated to 2011 and 2012 (17.62 and 16.92per 100,000, respectively), which werehigher compared toEu-rope (6.96Enrique Alcalde-Cabero1),
12 France (4.28),
13 United Kingdom (11.2),
14 Italy (6.4),
17 Sweden (10.2),
18 Norway (10.1 in 2009)
19, and all regions of Iran (9.1 in 2013).
11 Although the incidence of MS decreased in 2014, it was still highercompared to other regions in Iran and others countries.Overa
11, the study results showed that MS incidence had in-creased in the last decade, which is critical for Iran’shealth system. The increase in the inci-dence of MS in Shiraz might be due to the in-crease in MSpatients’ referral to this city. One study conducted in the center of Iran (Isfahan) indicated that MS incidence had approximately changed from 9.1 to 9.2 from 2009 to 2011.
11 Besides,mortalityhas significantly increased in MS patientscompared to the generalpopula-tion.20Therefore, the incidence of MS is high in Shiraz, which is warning for Iran’shealth system. Thus, health managers should take this disease and its related aspects into account.
Ebrahimi found a negative association between the prevalence of MS and average environment temperature. Accordingly,the prevalence of the disease was lower intheareas with higher annual averagetemperature.
21 However, the incidence of MS was higher in Shirazwithhotanddryweather-comparedtonorth of Iran with cold weather. Moreover, Ching-Piao Tsai found that 54.03% of MS patients lived in north of Taiwan.
22 Therefore, the results of our study were in contrast to those obtained by Ebrahimi.
In the current study, the female to male ratio was 2.95 and women comprised the majority of the MS patients insouth of Iran. This finding has been confirmed in all the studies conducted in this field. Women accounted for 71% of the incident cases in UK.
14 Besides, the crude female to male ratio was 2.26 in Sweden.
18
Etemadifar found that the incidence and preva-lence of MS increased rapidly, especially in fe-males, in Iran.11In north of Iran,73.1% of the MS patients were female.
7 In another study in Iran, the female tomale ratio was 3.1.
21 The ratio was also reported to be 3.3 in Taiwan and Italy
22,17 and 2.2 in Norway.
19 Considering such high incidence rates in women, it is suggested to survey the gender-related factors to decrease and prevent MS in Iran. According tothis study findings, female to male ratio has been stable over time. Benjaminsen also confirmed this result and found that the ratio remained unchanged from 1990.
19 Other studies have also shown sex ratio stability over time.
23,24 However, there has been an increase in this ratio across the world.
25,26
The findings of the present study demonstrateda-simultaneous increase in population and MS in-cidence.The results also indicated that the highest incidenceof MS was related to the 20-30 years’ age group. However, a previous study showed thatthe peak incidence of MS occurred at the age of 40 years in women and 45 years in men in UK.
14 Additionally,the mean age at MS diagno-sis was 37.9 years in Taiwan.
22 Also, the mean age of the patients was 33.4 years in north of Iran.
7 This implies that age of MS morbidity has decreased in thetwenty-firstcenturyand this dis-tributional peak has shifted to the age group of 20–24 years.
11 Since more than half of Iran’s population are less than 35 years old, MS is a critical disease thatthreatens this age group, es-pecially women.
11
The results of the current study showed that most of the patients had academic degrees. This shows that educated women might be more exposed to MS compared to other women. It should be mentioned that 17.4 of the women in Iran have academic degrees.
16 However, this variable has been investigated only in few studies. Two studies performed in Irancame to the same results as ours.
27,28 However,Riise found a marked and linear inverse relationship between the level of education and the risk of MS in anoil company in Norway.
29
According to the finding of the present study, the relapsing-remitting form of MS was detected in most of the patients (59.60%). Another study in north of Iran alsoreportedthe relapsing-remitting form of the disease in 67.7% of the patients.
7 Therefore, health workers should pay special attention to this form of the disease and investigate its causes to decrease and prevent MS relapse.
In Shiraz,most of theMS patientsusedCinnovex as the dominant drug. In another study,most of the patients used beta-interferon for a period of at least fouryears.
30 Hence,future studies are rec-ommended to investigate the effectiveness of MS drugs in Iran.
Conclusion:
The incidence of MS has rapidly risen in south of Iran compared to other regions.This incidence was similar to that reported in many western countries.Moreover, the incidence of MS in women was two folds higher than thatinmen, which is warning for Iran’shealth sys-tem.Therefore, future researches should focus on MS risk factors, especially in women, and strate-gies to decrease the incidenceof the disease. It is also necessary to increase the awareness of health managers and health policymakers about the increasing risk of MS in Iranian population.
Acknowledgement: The authors would like to thank Ms. A. Keivanshekouh at the Research Improvement Center of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences for improving the use of Eng-lish in the manuscript.
Conflicts of interest: The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.
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