Preparing for the inevitable earthquake risk in Dhaka: A physiatrist’s perspective

Authors

DOI:

Keywords

earthquake, Dhaka city, disaster preparedness, physiatrist

Correspondence

Md. Israt Hasan
Email: isratpmr@gmail.com

Publication history

Received: 6 Feb 2026
Accepted: 21 Mar 2026
Published online: 30 Mar 2026

Responsible editor

Reviewers

B: Md Nuruzzaman Khandaker

Funding

None

Ethical approval

Not applicable

Trial registration number

Not applicable

Copyright

© The Author(s) 2026; all rights reserved. 
Published by Bangladesh Medical University (former Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University).
Key messages
Dhaka’s earthquake preparedness remains survival-focused, neglecting the predictable burden of injury, disability, and longstanding functional loss. Integrating physiatrist-led rehabilitation into disaster planning, acute response, and recovery is essential to prevent avoidable disability, protect vulnerable populations, and build a resilient, humane health system for Bangladesh.

Dhaka, a densely populated megacity, faces a real and potentially catastrophic earthquake risk. Even moderate earthquakes have caused fatalities, highlighting vulnerability to larger events. Unplanned urbanization, vulnerable infrastructure, and seismic proximity increase its risk of mass casualties. Studies show low seismic risk perception and inadequate household preparedness, revealing critical gaps in public awareness and institutional readiness [1]. Bangladesh’s disaster preparedness focuses on mortality reduction and emergency response, with limited attention to injury, disability, and long-term functional loss, reflecting a critical deficiency from a physiatrist’s perspective. This study examines the rehabilitation preparedness in Dhaka and proposes a practical, physiatrist-led framework for integrating rehabilitation into disaster response. Recent earthquakes in and around Dhaka (2017–2025), including moderate events up to magnitude 6.2 with reported deaths, injuries, and structural damage, demonstrate ongoing seismic activity and highlight the city’s vulnerability, although these events do not represent probabilistic risk projections.

Geographically, Bangladesh lies close to the Indian–Eurasian plate boundary, with several active fault systems capable of producing large earthquakes. Seismological data indicate that Dhaka is at risk from both distant major events and moderate-to-severe earthquakes originating near or beneath the city. In this context, earthquake impacts extend far beyond immediate mortality. Evidence from global disasters shows that many survivors sustain fractures, spinal cord and traumatic brain injuries, crush injuries, amputations, and soft-tissue trauma, leading to substantial long-term disability without early rehabilitation. Although Bangladesh-specific data are limited, findings from disaster-affected settings such as the 2017 Bangladesh landslide indicates substantial unmet rehabilitation needs and system constraints [2]. Similar patterns are likely in Dhaka due to urban and health system vulnerabilities, which may overwhelm response and, without integrated rehabilitation, convert survivable injuries into long-term disability [3].

Physiatry plays a central yet often overlooked role in disaster response. Physiatrists focus on function, independence, and participation beyond the acute phase of injury [4]. In disaster settings, physiatrists serve as team leaders, multidisciplinary coordinators, policy advocates, and liaisons between acute care and long-term functional recovery. Early rehabilitation during acute care reduces complications and, as demonstrated in earthquakes in Nepal and Türkiye, improves functional outcomes and reduces long-term disability. Key interventions including mobilization, positioning, pain management, and timely provision of assistive devices further enhance recovery [5]. Without physiatrist-led coordination, these opportunities are often missed.

At present, rehabilitation preparedness in Dhaka remains inadequate. Disaster response frameworks prioritize emergency surgery and critical care but rarely incorporate functional assessment or rehabilitation triage. Most tertiary hospitals lack surge-ready rehabilitation beds, equipment, and trained multidisciplinary teams, while access to physiotherapy, occupational therapy, and assistive technology remains limited at district and upazilla levels. The rehabilitation workforce is insufficient and unevenly distributed, making rapid deployment during mass casualty events challenging. Available evidence suggests that workforce distribution, bed capacity, and assistive technology access remain limited, posing significant challenges for surge response [6]. A structured rehabilitation preparedness framework is proposed in Figure 1.

Figure 1 Physiatrist-led rehabilitation preparedness framework for earthquake response in Dhaka

Equally concerning is the vulnerability of people with pre-existing disabilities. Individuals who depend on wheelchairs, prostheses, orthoses, or caregivers face heightened risks of injury, displacement, and loss of independence during earthquakes. Disaster preparedness plans seldom address accessible evacuation, continuity of rehabilitation care, or replacement of assistive devices, contradicting principles of disability-inclusive disaster risk reduction and further marginalizing this population.

Integrating rehabilitation into national disaster policies and emergency medical team frameworks is essential for system-level implementation. As a major earthquake in Dhaka remains inevitable, preparedness must address the predictable surge of disability. A physiatrist-led approach can reduce suffering and support resilient, function-focused health systems.

Variables  

Frequency (%)

Indication of colposcopy

 

Visual inspection of the cervix with acetic acid positive

200 (66.7)

Abnormal pap test

13 (4.3)

Human papilloma virus DNA positive

4 (1.3)

Suspicious looking cervix

14 (4.7)

Others (per vaginal discharge, post-coital bleeding)

69 (23.0)

Histopathological diagnosis

Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia 1

193 (64.3)

Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia 2

26 (8.7)

Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia 3

32 (10.7)

Invasive cervical cancer

27 (9.0)

Chronic cervicitis

17 (5.6)

Squamous metaplasia

5 (1.7)

Groups based on pre-test marks

Pretest
marks (%)

Posttest

Marks (%)

Difference in pre and post-test marks (mean improvement)

P

Didactic lecture classes

<50%

36.6 (4.8)

63.2 (9.4)

26.6

<0.001

≥50%

52.8 (4.5)

72.4 (14.9)

19.6

<0.001

Flipped classes

<50%

36.9 (4.7)

82.2 (10.8)

45.4

<0.001

≥50%

52.8 (4.6)

84.2 (10.3)

31.4

<0.001

Data presented as mean (standard deviation)

Background characteristics

Number (%)

Age at presentation (weeks)a

14.3 (9.2)

Gestational age at birth (weeks)a

37.5 (2.8)

Birth weight (grams)a

2,975.0 (825.0)

Sex

 

Male

82 (41)

Female

118 (59)

Affected side

 

Right

140 (70)

Left

54 (27)

Bilateral

6 (3)

Delivery type

 

Normal vaginal delivery

152 (76)

Instrumental delivery

40 (20)

Cesarean section

8 (4)

Place of delivery

 

Home delivery by traditional birth attendant

30 (15)

Hospital delivery by midwife

120 (60)

Hospital delivery by doctor

50 (25)

Prolonged labor

136 (68)

Presentation

 

Cephalic

144 (72)

Breech

40 (20)

Transverse

16 (8)

Shoulder dystocia

136 (68)

Maternal diabetes

40 (20)

Maternal age (years)a

27.5 (6.8)

Parity of mother

 

Primipara

156 (78)

Multipara

156 (78)

aMean (standard deviation), all others are n (%)

Background characteristics

Number (%)

Age at presentation (weeks)a

14.3 (9.2)

Gestational age at birth (weeks)a

37.5 (2.8)

Birth weight (grams)a

2,975.0 (825.0)

Sex

 

Male

82 (41)

Female

118 (59)

Affected side

 

Right

140 (70)

Left

54 (27)

Bilateral

6 (3)

Delivery type

 

Normal vaginal delivery

152 (76)

Instrumental delivery

40 (20)

Cesarean section

8 (4)

Place of delivery

 

Home delivery by traditional birth attendant

30 (15)

Hospital delivery by midwife

120 (60)

Hospital delivery by doctor

50 (25)

Prolonged labor

136 (68)

Presentation

 

Cephalic

144 (72)

Breech

40 (20)

Transverse

16 (8)

Shoulder dystocia

136 (68)

Maternal diabetes

40 (20)

Maternal age (years)a

27.5 (6.8)

Parity of mother

 

Primipara

156 (78)

Multipara

156 (78)

aMean (standard deviation), all others are n (%)

Mean escape latency of acquisition day

Groups                 

NC

SC

ColC

Pre-SwE Exp

Post-SwE Exp

Days

 

 

 

 

 

1st

26.2 (2.3)

30.6 (2.4) 

60.0 (0.0)b

43.2 (1.8)b

43.8 (1.6)b

2nd

22.6 (1.0) 

25.4 (0.6)

58.9 (0.5)b

38.6 (2.0)b

40.5 (1.2)b

3rd

14.5 (1.8) 

18.9 (0.4) 

56.5 (1.2)b

34.2 (1.9)b 

33.8 (1.0)b

4th

13.1 (1.7) 

17.5 (0.8) 

53.9 (0.7)b

35.0 (1.6)b

34.9 (1.6)b

5th

13.0 (1.2) 

15.9 (0.7) 

51.7 (2.0)b

25.9 (0.7)b 

27.7 (0.9)b

6th

12.2 (1.0) 

13.3 (0.4) 

49.5 (2.0)b

16.8 (1.1)b

16.8 (0.8)b

Average of acquisition days

5th and 6th 

12.6 (0.2)

14.6 (0.8)

50.6 (0.7)b

20.4 (2.1)a

22.4 (3.2)a

NC indicates normal control; SC, Sham control; ColC, colchicine control; SwE, swimming exercise exposure.

aP <0.05; bP <0.01.

Categories

Number (%)

Sex

 

   Male

36 (60.0)

   Female

24 (40.0)

Age in yearsa

8.8 (4.2)

Education

 

   Pre-school

20 (33.3)

   Elementary school

24 (40.0)

   Junior high school

16 (26.7)

Cancer diagnoses

 

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia

33 (55)

Retinoblastoma

5 (8.3)

Acute myeloid leukemia

4 (6.7)

Non-Hodgkins lymphoma

4 (6.7)

Osteosarcoma

3 (5)

Hepatoblastoma

2 (3.3)

Lymphoma

2 (3.3)

Neuroblastoma

2 (3.3)

Medulloblastoma

1 (1.7)

Neurofibroma

1 (1.7)

Ovarian tumour

1 (1.7)

Pancreatic cancer

1 (1.7)

Rhabdomyosarcoma

1 (1.7)

aMean (standard deviation)

Test results

Disease

Sensitivity (%)

Specificity (%)

PPV (%)

NPV (%)

Yes

No

Reid’s score ≥ 5

Positive

10

15

37.0

94.5

40.1

93.8

Negative

17

258

 

 

 

 

Swede score ≥ 5

Positive

20

150

74.1

45.0

11.8

94.6

Negative

7

123

 

 

 

 

Swede score ≥ 8

Positive

3

21

11.1

92.3

12.5

91.3

Negative

24

252

 

 

 

 

High-grade indicates a score of ≥5 in both tests; PPV indicates positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value

Test

Sensitivity (%)

Specificity (%)

Positive predictive value (%)

Negative predictive value (%)

Reid’s score ≥ 5

37.0

94.5

40.0

93.8

Swede score ≥ 5

74.1

45

11.8

94.6

Swede score ≥ 8

11.1

92.3

12.5

91.3

Test

Sensitivity (%)

Specificity (%)

Positive predictive value (%)

Negative predictive value (%)

Reid’s score ≥ 5

37.0

94.5

40.0

93.8

Swede score ≥ 5

74.1

45

11.8

94.6

Swede score ≥ 8

11.1

92.3

12.5

91.3

Narakas classification

Total

200 (100%)

Grade 1

72 (36%)

Grade 2

64 (32%)

Grade 3

50 (25%)

Grade 4

14 (7%)

Complete recoverya

107 (54)

60 (83)

40 (63)

7 (14)

-

Near complete functional recovery but partial deformitya

22 (11)

5 (7)

10 (16)

6 (12)

1 (7)

Partial recovery with gross functional defect    and deformity

31 (16)

7 (10)

13 (20)

10 (20)

1 (7)

No significant improvement 

40 (20)

-

1 (1.5)

27 (54)

12 (86)

aSatisfactory recovery

bGrade 1, C5, 6, 7 improvement; Grade 2, C5, 6, 7 improvement; Grade 3, panpalsy C5, 6, 7, 8, 9, Grade 4, panpalsy with Hornon’s syndrome.

Narakas classification

Total

200 (100%)

Grade-1

72 (36%)

Grade-2

64 (32%)

Grade-3

50 (25%)

Grade-4

14 (7%)

Complete recoverya

107 (54)

60 (83)

40 (63)

7 (14)

-

Near complete functional recovery but partial deformitya

22 (11)

5 (7)

10 (16)

6 (12)

1 (7)

Partial recovery with gross functional defect    and deformity

31 (16)

7 (10)

13 (20)

10 (20)

1 (7)

No significant improvement 

40 (20)

-

1 (1.5)

27 (54)

12 (86)

aSatisfactory recovery

bGrade 1, C5, 6, 7 improvement; Grade 2, C5, 6, 7 improvement; Grade 3, panpalsy C5, 6, 7,8,9, Grade 4, panpalsy with Hornon’s syndrome.

Variables in probe trial day

Groups

NC

SC

ColC

Pre-SwE Exp

Post-SwE Exp

Target crossings

8.0 (0.3)

7.3 (0.3) 

1.7 (0.2)a

6.0 (0.3)a

5.8 (0.4)a

Time spent in target

18.0 (0.4) 

16.2 (0.7) 

5.8 (0.8)a

15.3 (0.7)a

15.2 (0.9)a

NC indicates normal control; SC, Sham control; ColC, colchicine control; SwE, swimming exercise exposure.

aP <0.01.

Pain level

Number (%)

P

Pre

Post 1

Post 2

Mean (SD)a pain score

4.7 (1.9)

2.7 (1.6)

0.8 (1.1)

<0.001

Pain categories

    

   No pain (0)

-

(1.7)

31 (51.7)

<0.001

   Mild pain (1-3)

15 (25.0)

43 (70.0)

27 (45.0)

 

   Moderete pain (4-6)

37 (61.7)

15 (25.0)

2 (3.3)

 

   Severe pain (7-10)

8 (13.3)

2 (3.3)

-

 

aPain scores according to the visual analogue scale ranging from 0 to 10; SD indicates standard deviation

Surgeries

Number  

(%)

Satisfactory outcomes n (%)

Primary surgery (n=24)

 

 

Upper plexus

6 (25)

5 (83)

Pan-palsy

18 (75)

6 (33)

All

24 (100)

11 (46)

Secondary Surgery (n=26)

 

 

Shoulder deformity

15 (58)

13 (87)

Wrist and forearm deformity

11 (42)

6 (54)

All

26 (100)

19 (73)

Primary and secondary surgery

50 (100)

30 (60)

Mallet score 14 to 25 or Raimondi score 2-3 or Medical Research grading >3 to 5.

Narakas classification

Total

200 (100%)

Grade-1

72 (36%)

Grade-2

64 (32%)

Grade-3

50 (25%)

Grade-4

14 (7%)

Complete recoverya

107 (54)

60 (83)

40 (63)

7 (14)

-

Near complete functional recovery but partial deformitya

22 (11)

5 (7)

10 (16)

6 (12)

1 (7)

Partial recovery with gross functional defect    and deformity

31 (16)

7 (10)

13 (20)

10 (20)

1 (7)

No significant improvement 

40 (20)

-

1 (1.5)

27 (54)

12 (86)

aSatisfactory recovery

bGrade 1, C5, 6, 7 improvement; Grade 2, C5, 6, 7 improvement; Grade 3, panpalsy C5, 6, 7,8,9, Grade 4, panpalsy with Hornon’s syndrome.

Trials

Groups

NC

SC

ColC

Pre-SwE Exp

Post-SwE Exp

1

20.8 (0.6)

22.1 (1.8)

41.1 (1.3)b

31.9 (1.9)b

32.9 (1.8)a, b

2

10.9 (0.6)

14.9 (1.7)

37.4 (1.1)b

24.9 (2.0)b

26.8 (2.5)b

3

8.4 (0.5)

9.9 (2.0)

32.8 (1.2)b

22.0 (1.4)b

21.0 (1.4)b

4

7.8 (0.5)

10.4 (1.3)

27.6(1.1)b

12.8 (1.2)b

13.0 (1.4)b

Savings (%)c

47.7 (3.0)

33.0 (3.0)

10.0 (0.9)b

23.6 (2.7)b

18.9 (5.3)b

NC indicates normal control; SC, Sham control; ColC, colchicine control; SwE, swimming exercise exposure.

aP <0.05; bP <0.01.

cThe difference in latency scores between trials 1 and 2, expressed as the percentage of savings increased from trial 1 to trial 2

 Lesion-size

Histopathology report

Total

CIN1

CIN2

CIN3

ICC

CC

SM

0–5 mm

73

0

0

0

5

5

83

6–15 mm

119

18

1

4

0

0

142

>15 mm

1

8

31

23

12

0

75

Total

193

26

32

27

17

5

300

CIN indicates cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; ICC, invasive cervical cancer; CC, chronic cervicitis; SM, squamous metaplasia

 

Histopathology report

Total

CIN1

CIN2

CIN3

ICC

CC

SM

Lesion -Size

0-5  mm

73

0

0

0

5

5

83

6-15  mm

119

18

1

4

0

0

142

>15  mm

1

8

31

23

12

0

75

Total

193

26

32

27

17

5

300

CIN indicates Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; ICC, Invasive cervical cancer; CC, Chronic cervicitis; SM, Squamous metaplasia

Group

Didactic posttest marks (%)

Flipped posttest marks (%)

Difference in marks (mean improvement)

P

<50%

63.2 (9.4)

82.2 (10.8)

19.0

<0.001

≥50%

72.4 (14.9)

84.2 ( 10.3)

11.8

<0.001

Data presented as mean (standard deviation)

Acknowledgements
None
Author contributions
Manuscript drafting and revising it critically: MIH, FN, SMA. Approval of the final version of the manuscript: MIH, FN, SMA. Guarantor of accuracy and integrity of the work: MIH, FN, SMA.
Conflict of interest
We do not have any conflict of interest.
Data availability statement
We confirm that the data supporting the findings of the study will be shared upon reasonable request.
AI disclosure
We take full responsibility for the content of this manuscript. ChatGPT (version 5.2; OpenAI) was used solely for assistance with English language editing and sentence clarity. Prompts were used to improve grammar, vocabulary, and structure where needed. All AI-generated suggestions were critically reviewed, revised, and approved by the authors to ensure accuracy, originality, and integrity of the work.
Supplementary file
None
    References
    1. Hossain MS, Numada M, Mitu M, Timsina K, Krisna C, Rahman MZ, Kamal ASMM, Meguro K. Simplified engineering geomorphic unit-based seismic site characterization of the detailed area plan of Dhaka city, Bangladesh. Sci Rep. 2023 Jul 10;13(1):11151. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-37628-6
    2. Uddin T, Islam MT, Gosney JE. 2017 Bangladesh landslides: physical rehabilitation perspective. Disabil Rehabil. 2021 Mar;43(5):718-725. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09638288.2019.1620879
    3. Rahman MM, Asikunnaby, Chaity NJ, Abdo HG, Almohamad H, Al Dughairi AA, Al-Mutiry M. Earthquake preparedness in an urban area: the case of Dhaka city, Bangladesh. Geoscience Letters. 2023;10(1):27. doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-023-00281-y
    4. Amatya B, Khan F. Disaster Response and Management: The Integral Role of Rehabilitation. Ann Rehabil Med. 2023 Aug;47(4):237-260. doi: https://doi.org/10.5535/arm.23071
    5. Aycicek HB, Özdemir EC. The Essential Role of Early Rehabilitation in Disasters: A Single Center Experience in Türkiye-Syria Earthquake. Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2025 Jul 15;19:e188. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2025.10111
    6. Hasan MI, Newaz F, Emran M, Ahmed SM, Shakoor MA, Uddin T. Earthquake Risk and Preparedness in Bangladesh: The Indispensable Role of Rehabilitation Medicine. KYAMC Journal. 2025;16(2):90-97. doi: https://doi.org/10.3329/kyamcj.v16i2.87708