An Econometric Analysis to Forecast the Food Grain Production in Bangladesh by Using ARIMA and VAR Models

Abstract

In this study, an Econometric analysis has been conducted to identify the important factors that affect the food grain productions in
Bangladesh. Here, we have considered time series data for the years from 1989- 1990 to 2019-2020. Vector Autoregressive (VAR)
Model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model have been considered in this study. Both these models
have been considered to forecast the productions of food grains in Bangladesh. The forecasting performances of these two models
have been compared by using RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. It has been found that the VAR model is better than the ARIMA model to
forecast the food grain production. On the other hand, it has been come out from the analysis that there is no significant impact of
chemical fertilizer on the food grain production, but irrigation area has significant impact on the food grain production. Among the
three variables: food grain production, irrigation area and chemical fertilizer, there exists short run relationship.

Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 70(1): 8-13, 2022 (January)