Socio-Demographic Determinants of Mortality in Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis

Abstract

Understanding the factors influencing the death rate in Bangladesh is essential for effective policy-making and addressing demographic challenges. This study aims to examine both the short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships between socio-demographic factors and the death rate of Bangladesh over a given period. It focuses on four key factors: adolescence fertility rate (AFR), life expectancy rate at birth, birth rate, and infant mortality rate (IMR). Taking an annual time series dataset from 1975 to 2021 from the World Bank (WB), the study uses the Johansen co-integration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and Granger causality test to analyze the relationships between these factors and death rate. The findings reveal short-term and long-term equilibrium links between the socio-demographic parameters and death rate. A substantial negative correlation exists between death rate and AFR and life expectancy. Additionally, a positive correlation is observed between the death rate and birth rate, and IMR. These findings provide valuable insights for decision-makers to address the death rate in Bangladesh, bridging a research gap and guiding effective socio-demographic policies.

International Journal of Statistical Sciences, Vol. 24(2), November, 2024, pp 35-54