Optimizing Wind Speed Predictions in Bangladesh: Unveiling the Power of Machine Learning Approaches

Abstract

Wind speed is a naturally occurring phenomenon that arises from the intricate interplay of various atmospheric processes. Wind speed prediction is pivotal in various sectors worldwide, and Bangladesh is no exception. Beyond its impact on agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness, wind speed also plays a crucial role in urban planning and construction projects. Architects and engineers rely on accurate wind speed forecasts to design buildings and infrastructure that can withstand local wind conditions. Furthermore, the aviation and maritime industries heavily depend on wind speed predictions to ensure the safety of flights and shipping routes. Predicting wind speeds in Bangladesh poses a significant challenge due to the region's susceptibility to frequent seasonal changes influenced by its coastal location and complex, nonlinear climate patterns. To address this important aspect, we leverage Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, including Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forest (RF), K Nearest Neighbors (K-NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) to forecast wind speeds at various weather stations in Bangladesh. We utilized various accuracy metrics, including precision, sensitivity, specificity, F-measure, and overall accuracy, to evaluate the performances of the algorithms.  The RF model outperformed the other models with an overall accuracy of 94.73% for predicting wind speed conditions in Bangladesh. On the other hand, the LDA model exhibited the lowest performance, achieving an accuracy of 93.27% in comparison to the other models. It is noticeable that the aforementioned five models showed more than 90% accuracy for windspeed prediction. Additionally, we complement our analysis with visual representations such as box plots, density plots, dot plots, parallel plots, and scatterplot matrix plots. These empirical results also highlighted the RF as the most suitable method for predicting contemporary wind speed patterns in Bangladesh.

International Journal of Statistical Sciences, Vol. 24(2), November, 2024, pp 137-154