Trend and Variability Analysis and Forecasting of Sunshine-Hour in Bangladesh

Abstract

An attempt has been taken to investigate the trend and variability pattern for annual and seasonal (Three crop seasons) average sunshine-hours (ASSH) for six divisional stations of Bangladesh: Dhaka, Khulna, Rajshahi, Barisal, Sylhet and Chittagong. The monthly ASSH (2008-2011) are forecasted applying the univariate Box-Jenkins ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) modelling technique on the basis of the minimum root mean square forecasting error. Several diagnostic techniques are used for detection of outlier and residuals stationarity and normality. The significant negative rates are observed for linear trend (LT) of Annual and Seasonal Average ASSH in all the six stations with only one minor positive rate for Prekharif season in Khulna. The findings support that the climate of Bangladesh is changing in terms of sunshine-hour which may have tremendous effects in the agricultural production.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jesnr.v5i2.14802

J. Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 5(2): 109-118 2012