Behavioral Lock-ins in Chemical Fertilizer Use: Implications for Agroecological Transitions to Sustainable Food Systems in Nepal

Abstract

Agricultural policies continue to rationalize chemical fertilizer subsidy provisions for enhancing crop productivity and food security despite limited evidence of their positive outcomes.  This study examines the factors that influence farmers’ willingness to pay more for chemical fertilizers than the government-subsidized price. It also investigates how farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for chemical fertilizers shapes agroecological transitions using the path dependence and lock-in concepts. The study used a convergent mixed-methods research design and surveyed a total of 800 farming households in Nepal. The descriptive analysis was carried out first, followed by the Chi-square tests and logistic regression models. Gender, education level, age, caste/ethnicity, landholding size, and migration status did not have a significant effect on farmers’ WTP for chemical fertilizers. However, some behavioral elements’ effects were revealed. Farmers using chemical fertilizers for over ten years were four times more likely to have WTP compared to those using them for less than five years (OR:3.92; p<0.01; CI:1.45-10.59). Likewise, farmers with perceived economic advantage of chemical fertilizer were three times more likely to have WTP than those who did not (OR: 3.26; p<0.01; CI: 1.86-5.73).  These findings highlight that farmers’ WTP for chemical fertilizers reflects behavioral lock-ins to conventional agriculture. These lock-ins reinforce the chemical path dependence and create barriers to adopting agroecological practices, thereby impeding progress toward sustainable food systems. The study argues that agroecology may not be adopted simply because of its long-term benefits. Multidimensional factors, including the fear of yield loss without chemical inputs influence farmers’ decision making for shifting their current food production practices.

SAARC J. Agric., 24(1): 69-86 (2026)