Prediction of changing climatic effect and risk management by using simulation approaches for rice-wheat system in Bangladesh

Abstract

A study was carried out on the impact of climate change in rice-wheat systems on farmers’ livelihood in Dinajpur region of Bangladesh to evaluate the usefulness of the implication of simulation approaches to predict climate change effect and to manage risk for this cropping system. Trade-off analysis for multidimensional impact assessment (TOA-MD) model was used in the study with a combination of simulated baseline production and future simulated yield using Decision Support Systems for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) and Agricultural Production Systems SIMulator (APSIM) in rice and wheat production system. Five different climate scenarios of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were considered. The projections showed to have a negative economic impact between 50 and 82% for the difference in the magnitude and in the impact of different GCMs which was not possible to overcome. The survey revealed that northwest region of Bangladesh is likely to be affected by climate change and has high levels of vulnerability due to limited access to alternative livelihood activities other than farming. Simulation results showed no additional economic gain from wheat cultivation under changed climatic conditions, but increased economic profit was obtained from rice cultivation due to increased productivity trend. Therefore, study suggests an adaptation package of 50 mm additional irrigation water for wheat cultivation that could be an appropriate strategy to mitigate climate change risk in wheat cultivation. This practice had a positive impact on projected per capita income gains of about 2.05%in the study area and reduced poverty rate by about 1.99%. The study also revealed that prediction of the APSIM model for adaptation impact of climate change on economic return and per capita income of farmers was superior to DSSAT model.

Bangladesh J. Agril. Res. 44(2): 311-326, June 2019