A comparative analysis on maize yield prediction using sentinel 2A and Landsat 8 satellite image in Sundarganj, Gaibandha, Bangladesh

Abstract

Maize is an important cereal crops in Bangladesh. Over the last two decades, its cultivation has increased promisingly, especially in the Northern part of Bangladesh. The effective estimation of crop yields at a regional scale holds significant importance in facilitating decision-making within the agricultural sector, thereby ensuring grain security. The traditional ground-based measurement techniques suffer from inefficiencies, and there exists a need for a reliable, precise, and effective method for estimating regional crop yields. This study used remote sensing (RS) techniques for forecasting pre-harvest maize yield to improve the management system. Currently, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is widely used to predict crop yield including maize. However, the present study used Landsat 8 (~ 30 m) and Sentinel 2A (~ 10 m) high resolution data for 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 to predict maize yield based on the year 2020-2021 at Sundarganj Upazila in Gaibandha district. The single cloud free image acquisition date based on maximum NDVI for both satellite images was used for each maize growing period to develop a yield prediction model. A regression model was performed between NDVI values and 20 farmers field-level maize yields. The absolute mean error of prediction was about 10.30% for Landsat 8 and 6.70% for Sentinel 2A compared to the actual maize yield during 2020-2021. The study revealed that NDVI data extracted from Sentinel 2A high resolution satellite images can be successfully used to predict the maize yield with appreciable accuracy. Finally, this study has demonstrated the efficacy of combining multi-temporal remote sensing data for accurate maize yield estimation, aiding agricultural authorities and production enterprises in the timely formulation and refinement of cropping strategies and management policies for the ongoing season.

Bangladesh J. Agril. Res. 51(1): 501-521, March 2026