Simulation of Structure, Track and Landfall of Tropical Cyclone Bijli Using WRF-ARW Model

Abstract

An attempt was made to simulate the structure, track, landfall and a few dynamical aspects of the tropical cyclone Bijli that formed over the Bay of Bengal using WRF-ARW model. WRF model was run in a single domain using KF cumulus parameterization schemes with WSM 3 micro physics and YSU planetary boundary layer scheme. The ARW model was run for 24, 48, 72 and 96 hrs to simulate structure, track and landfall of tropical cyclones Bijli. The different simulated parameters viz. minimum sea level pressure, maximum wind speed, convective available potential energy and relative vorticity have been studied. The results showed that the model is capable to forecast the formation of the first depression 60 - 78 hrs in advance. This indicates the high and unique predictive power of ARW model for predicting the tropical cyclone formation. The model generates a realistic structure of the tropical cyclones with high spatial details. This was possible due to the higher spatial resolution of the regional model. One of the outstanding findings of the study is that the model was successfully predicted the tracks, recurvature and probable areas and time of landfall of the selected tropical cyclone Bijli with high accuracy even in the 96 hrs predictions.

Journal of Bangladesh Academy of Sciences, Vol. 39, No. 2, 157-167, 2015