Predicting COVID-19 Daily Mortality Using Multivariate Linear Regression: Comparative Evidence from Bangladesh and the UK

Abstract

Covid-19, a global epidemic, has created a health crisis all over the world.This study examines the correlation between daily new COVID-19 cases, vaccination rates, and daily new fatalities in Bangladesh and the United Kingdom, utilizing secondary data from the Our World in Data COVID-19 dataset spanning from 8 March 2020 to 19 December 2023. Following data cleaning, transformation, and normalization, correlation and multivariate regression analyses were performed utilizing RStudio. The findings indicated a strong positive correlation between daily new cases and daily new deaths in Bangladesh, while the United Kingdom exhibited a moderate positive correlation between both variables. In both nations, there was a negative correlation between vaccination rates and new fatalities, demonstrating the beneficial impact of immunization on mortality reduction. Vaccination has shown a negative correlation with new cases in Bangladesh, although it demonstrated a positive correlation in the UK samples. Regression models for both nations demonstrated a strong fit, accounting for roughly 84% of the variability in daily new fatalities. The study concludes that vaccination markedly decreased COVID-19 fatalities in both nations. The results offer significant insights for policymakers to formulate data-driven public health strategies and enhance pandemic preparedness.

Jagannath University Journal of Science, Volume 12, Number 1, Jun. 2025, pp. 99−118